TANZANIA MUST AVOID FALLING INTO KENYA’S TRAP OF ELECTION VIOLENCE
By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
Three
different newspapers published in Dar es Salaam cannot be wrong
especially if one of them, the oldest, belongs to the CCM. They are all
saying more-or-less the same thing; that there is uncertainty and
anxiety in the air. They are all expressing fear that Bongoland’s
elections may be rigged in favor of the ruling party based on the mood
in the country that seems to be craving for regime change in the land of
Mwalimu Julius Nyerere.
Signs that all is
not well are clearly brought out in the latest opinion results conducted
by Research and Education in Democracy in Tanzania(REDET), a state owned research center housed at the University of Dar es Salaam, Synovate of Kenya and several online surveys conducted by Daily News, Uhuru Publications and ThisDay newspaper published by Reginald Mengi’s outfit.
In
the run-up to the Kenyan elections in 2007, we had a similar scenario
where opinion polls became the centre of vicious debates, claims and
counter claims of doctored results depending on who or which party was
favored or dismissed by the polls. Whenever an opinion poll favored PNU,
other parties and their supporters dismissed it as cooked. On the other
hand, if another pollster published results that favored ODM, other
players routinely dismissed it as bogus.
On
the other hand, the Kenyan public were routinely treated to a measure
of the popularity of presidential candidates and their parties through
the sizes of their rallies that at times were beamed live on
local television stations. Therefore if the polls did not reflect what
the masses saw on TV, they always disputed such results.
Claims
of preplanned rigging of results as already alluded to by Wilbroad Slaa
were typical in Kenya just months before the elections. Plans to use
the police and the provincial administration to be election monitors for
PNU the ruling party were equally on the cards. It was these strange
developments, coupled with public pronouncements that PNU would not
concede defeat that led ODM to announce very early that the party would
only accept defeat if the elections were free and fair. On the other
hand, if the results were rigged, the party would mobilize its huge
following countrywide for mass action to protest the results.
Looking
at the Tanzanian election campaigns this year, there are signs that the
country is reading from Kenya’s script. If already, a CCM high ranking
official has declared that Wilbroad Slaa will not be the fifth Tanzanian
president, it must be because there is something he knows about the
election outcome that other Tanzanians are not privy to.
On
the other hand, the intervention of the military chiefs to warn
Tanzanians against causing chaos must have sent chills down the spines
of many people in that country. Ordinarily, the military in Tanzania
just like in Kenya are supposed to be apolitical in such circumstances.
To meddle in the political arena at such sensitive moments can only
remind us of the Zimbabwe scenario where prior to the elections, the
military came out to announce that they would not mount a military guard
for anybody other than Robert Mugabe.
In
East Africa, Tanzania has had the best history of political stability
despite its population being highly politicized. For this reason, it has
earned the respect of many international organizations because of its
peaceful political transitions. In fact it is only in Tanzania where we
would have had four retired former heads of State had Mwalimu Nyerere
not passed on suddenly in 1979.
Regime
change like we have had in Kenya and Ghana in the recent past is not
something easy to achieve in Africa especially if a whole ruling
political party has to be thrown
out of power. In Tanzania’s case, the task is even more daunting because
CCM is the party that ushered in independence 49 years ago and many
Tanzanians born after independence now nearing their 50s have grown up
knowing only the ruling CCM.
In 2000,
Ghanaians resolved that Jerry Rawlings’ party had to leave power after
two decades. They gave power to John Kufuor’s opposition party. Eight
years later, Ghanaians made another about turn and returned power to
Jerry Rawlings’ party by electing Atta Mills in 2008 as Ghana’s new
president. Such regime change can only take place once multiparty
politics, democratic governance and political maturity has taken root in
society.
In Kenya, the only time we
effected regime change was in 2002 when the nation overwhelmingly voted
KANU out of power after ruling the country for 40 years. Had the
opposition parties not resolved to work together, perhaps this feat
would not have been realized.
As we wait to
see the outcome of Tanzania’s results on October 31, a few facts must
be driven home for our brothers and sisters. They must be reminded that
Tanzania is bigger than Jakaya Kikwete or Wilbroad Slaa. If it is the
will of the people of Tanzania to return Kikwete to power through
majority vote, so be it. However, if the same Tanzanians decide that the
moment for regime change is now; their decision must be respected by
those in power including the armed forces.
As an East African, I need a peaceful and prosperous Tanzania; not a chaotic one.
Okungu is the CEO of Kenya-Today in Nairobi
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